Document Type : Original Article
Authors
- Sara Hosseinipour Qanatabadi 1
- Shiva Azadfada 1
- Hamid Sadjadi Hazavah 2
- Talieh , Khademian 3
- Ahad Rezayan Ghiehbashi 4
1 Department of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, NT. C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, CT. C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Sociology, NT. C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
4 Department of Futures Studies, Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
The aim of the present study is to analyze the future developments of social capital in Iranian sports in the context of horizontal media and micro-influencers and to draw possible scenarios in the horizon of 1440. This study was applied-developmental in terms of purpose and mixed (qualitative-quantitative) in terms of approach and was conducted using a scenario-based planning model (expert model). In the qualitative part, data were collected through 18 semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of sports media, managers, researchers, and micro-influencers and examined using thematic analysis. The results of the qualitative analysis identified five major strategic axes, including recreating digital trust, transferring media power from institutions to individuals, algorithmic logic and attention economy, fluid and fragile media governance, and the duality of collective participation and discursive polarization. Accordingly, 12 key drivers were extracted and evaluated in the quantitative stage using the Delphi technique and the cross-effects matrix in the Mikmak software. Structural analysis showed that the five drivers of platform power, invisible algorithms, emotional reward, lack of accountability, and independent content production play a central role in shaping the future. Then, by defining the dual states of these drivers and assessing their compatibility in the expert panel, four main scenarios were drawn: smart platform-society balance (desirable), platform vortex (critical), gradual progress of regulation (semi-desirable), and short-term attention trap (high risk).
Keywords
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