Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 Ph.D. Student sports management, Ha.c., Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran.
2 Department of Physical Education, Ha.c., Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran
3 Department of Sport Management, Isf.C., Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.
4 Department of Physical Education, Mal.C., Islamic Azad University, Malayer, Iran
5 Department of Physical Education, Ha.c., Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran.
Abstract
The present study aimed to design a strategic foresight model for Iranian weightlifting to recreate a pathway toward excellence at the 2032 Olympic Games and overcome the performance decline observed in recent years. Methodologically, this research is applied in purpose and employs a mixed-methods design (qualitative–quantitative) with an exploratory and scenario-based approach. The statistical population consisted of academic and executive experts (senior managers, national team coaches, and Olympic champions), among whom 22 individuals were selected using purposive and snowball sampling as members of the Delphi panel. In the first phase (qualitative section), 13 strategic components were identified through in-depth interviews and environmental scanning. In the second phase (quantitative section), data were analyzed using cross-impact analysis in MICMAC software, revealing system instability and identifying five key drivers—“governance stability and effectiveness,” “development of sustainable financial resources,” “scientific talent identification systems,” “risk management and resilience,” and “image-building and social acceptance”—as the main uncertainties. In the final stage, Scenario Wizard software was used to develop plausible futures, resulting in three coherent scenarios: (1) “The Recovered Rostam” (optimal scenario), representing systemic synergy, financial independence, and the restoration of competitive strength; (2) “The Weary Champion” (probable/static scenario), characterized by organizational inertia, gradual survival, and reliance on isolated star athletes; and (3) “The Empty Podium” (critical scenario), warning of structural collapse and Iran’s potential withdrawal from the global landscape of the sport.
Keywords
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