Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 PhD student in Physical Education, University of Kurdistan - Instructor of Physical Education, Imam Hossein University of Cadet and Guarding
2 Professor, Department of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan
3 Director of the General Directorate for Coordination of Provincial Affairs, Ministry of Sports and Youth
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to identify and structurally analyze the strategic uncertainties affecting the future of wrestling sport management in Iran using a futures studies approach.The research was applied in terms of purpose and descriptive–analytical innature,and was conducted using a sequential exploratory mixed-methods design.In the qualitative phase,the key driving forces influencingthe future ofwrestling sport management were identified through semi-structured interviews with 26 experts in wrestling management, policy-making, and coaching, who were selected via purposive sampling based on the principle of theoretical saturation.Qualitative data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis within the framework of the extended PESTLIE model. In the quantitative phase, to analyze the structural relationships among the driving forces, a cross-impact matrix questionnaire (55×55) was designed and completed by 8 participants from the qualitative phase who served as members of the strategic panel. Data were analyzed using structural cross-impact analysis and MICMAC futures studies software.The findings led to the identification of 55 driving forces across political–governance, economic, socio-cultural, technological,legal–regulatory, international–geopolitical, and infrastructural–environmental dimensions.The results indicated that driving forces such as major political developments, the sustainability of the federation’sfinancial resources, the levelof professionalization in wrestling, and Iran’s international relationsin global wrestling function as strategic uncertainties and play a pivotal role in shaping the futureof wrestlingsport management. These findings suggest that wrestling sport management inIran is acomplex and dynamic system whose future is shaped more bythe interaction ofmacro-level political, economic, social,and international driversthan bylinear andpredictable processes, and that changes in key drivers can generate wide-ranging effects across theentire system.
Keywords
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